"Bold Carnelian, Solid Zephyrite, Subtle Alicite, Perfect Quick Alicite, Sovereign Nightstone, Regal Jasper, Resolute Hessonite, and any cut of uncommon gem now sells to NPC for 75 silver instead of 9 gold."If this comes to pass this would be a game changer in quite a few markets and my initial thoughts on the subject are below:
- The information was DATAMINED and is not in the current PTR patch notes. This means that this may or may not come to pass. There are many, many instances when datamined information has never made it into the game. In other words, "It isn't over until the fat lady sings" - and while the fat lady is now on stage she isn't singing just yet.
- If this comes to pass it will move the vendor price for Obsidium Ore from 54 gold to 4g 50s a stack (edit: 5g a stack when vendored in bar form) and the vendor price of Elementium Ore will go from roughly 44g to 7.5g a stack. In other words the price for ore is going to crash.
- The decrease in ore price will drastically lower the prices for gems, enchants (cheaper ore = cheaper gems = cheaper rings = cheaper enchant mats), blacksmithing, and some engineering items.
- Item #3 will mean that more people can afford and buy blacksmithing items, enchants, and the gems needed to go with them.
- Item #4 will mean there will still be a market for these items - the trick will be to sell the items fast as the price is going to be much more volatile than before. Keeping track of your ore purchase price and the price you are selling items at will become more important and more difficult.
- Item #2 will mean some people will move from farming ore to farming herbs and/or leather. This will mean that the prices for these items will probably decrease as well.
- Item #6 means that there will probably be more volatile life on the market (more people collecting herbs) and less of the other volatiles (less people mining).
- Items #2 and #6 will mean that gold selling companies will have a harder time getting money from farming/botting. Since this will come at a time of increased activity the gold selling companies will probably also have increased orders. Because of this there could very well be a spate of account hacks/compromises as the gold companies try to get the gold they need to fill in the orders. If you haven't already done so now would be a good time to get an Authenticator - especially if you have bought gold and/or a leveling service in the past.
- Holding Pyrite Ore in the hopes you will be able to get epic gems from it just got a whole lot riskier.
The actions I will be taking are below:
A) I will be buying ALL obsidium ore below 54g/stack and elementium below 44g/stack and prospecting it. I will try to sell as much as possible on the AH in gem/cut gem/enchant mat form before Monday night. Monday night I will cut and vendor at least 95% of my uncommon gem stock so that I am not caught out by any possible patches applied Tuesday morning. I will continue this pattern until the patch comes so that I am taking advantage of the shuffle while I can.
B) I am halting buying pyrite ore to hold onto until things settle down a bit.
C) I will only make enchants and/or blacksmithing items that I know will sell quickly. If the datamined information does happen I expect the prices for both to drop quickly and I want as little stock as possible if this happens. I also plan to sell any elementium/obsidium bars I have on the AH as they will sell quicker as bars than as armor.
D) I am going to buy up all underpriced volatiles (besides life) and hold onto them.
E) My transmute alchemist will be transmuting volatiles religiously every day.
F) My basic goal is to increase my liquidity and to decrease my stock so that I am unaffected by any negative changes and can quickly engage in any new markets that emerge.
What about you? What are your plans? Think I missed something or am wrong on any of the above points?
Have fun making gold!
If I'm not mistaken, the obsidium floor is 5g, not 4.5g due to bar vendor prices. (50s per bar)
ReplyDelete@Grit. You are correct! Editing the original post now. Nice catch.
ReplyDeleteGood points on all accounts.
ReplyDeleteWe know for a fact that the amount of people prospecting will decrease and the only valuable left in ore now are Inferno Rubies so I'm buying up on those.
I'm also taking your pyrite ore point one step further and am prospecting them all as I type this.
Another thing you missed is Hypnotic Dusts and Greater Celestial Essences. There's already such a large amount coming in through Jasper Rings such that Alicite, Hessonite and Nightstones aren't worth using on them. Now obviously if this change does go ahead, they will be but the counter to that is the decreased number of prospectors again and the new gear that's coming along with the patch. Am also doubting Carnelian Spikes will continue to be worth making.
If Volatiles do increase in price as you predict, there might be additional demand on Lifes due to alchemists moving from truegold to living elements.
@nubbie I'm still a bit torn on inferno rubies. I need to do some more thinking before I decide what to do with them.
ReplyDeleteGood idea on the Pyrite. I'm thinking of prospecting mine as well but I only have 20 stacks of it right now so it is pretty low on my list of priorities. Thinking of keeping it and hoping for a lucky surprise - haven't decided yet.
With regards to the enchanting mats I'm not so sure that there will be less prospectors out there. The market will be volatile for a while but I won't be surprised at all if DEing becomes valuable again due to the price drop of ore.
Good point on the volatiles. Also if what you point out does happen that could lead to an increase in truegold price.
I'm waffling on cutting and vendoring my Carnelians since I was going to use them for Inferno Rubies. The more I think about it I'd probably do best cutting and vendoring them at 9g and re-picking up dirt-cheap Carnelians after the change for my xmutes.
ReplyDeleteExciting stuff!
If people are going to make Obsidium floor value posts based on the MMO data of 75s cut price, why dont they also look at the same MMO data for the 5G uncut price? That makes the floor price 30G. Why would anyone vendor gems at the lower value?
ReplyDelete